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Several Telegram channels have recently promoted the idea of a “Narva People’s Republic". This campaign closely resembles the messaging used during the occupation of Crimea and Donbas in 2014. While small channels alone may have limited influence, the broader context is concerning. Russian television hosts are also openly discussing the possibility of invading Narva to disrupt NATO, and several high-level European leaders have warned that Russia could test Europe in the near future. Taken together, these signals raise serious concerns about regional security in Europe.  This week’s blog post explores these questions: How capable is Russia of striking Europe, and are the Baltic states at risk of an attack in the near term?   WHAT IS THE NARVA PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC? Over the past few weeks, a number of pro-Russian Telegram channels and social media accounts have been circulating claims about a so-called “ Narva People’s Republic ” in north-eastern Estonia, near the Russian border. T...

The conflict in Iran has now stretched nearly two weeks, with casualties mounting among both civilians and regime forces. America’s objectives remain unclear, though former President Trump has suggested goals ranging from regime change to dismantling Iran’s nuclear program—and even targeting its ballistic missile capabilities. The war has already triggered a well-known but deeply concerning consequence: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow yet strategically critical waterway, controlled by Iran, is a vital artery for global oil shipments. Fears of missile strikes and drone attacks have made navigating it extremely hazardous, halting maritime traffic indefinitely. In this post, I want to focus on the Strait of Hormuz. Let's look at why it matters, how its closure reverberates across the global oil market, and what it could mean for the future trajectory of the conflict. WHAT AND WHERE IS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ? The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but critical waterway in the ...

We were struck by another shocking development over the weekend when the United States launched a major military operation against Iran early Saturday morning. The strikes included extensive air and missile attacks across multiple targets in the country. In the initial assaults, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reportedly killed along with a number of senior Iranian officials, including top military leaders such as the defense minister and commanders of the Revolutionary Guard. In this blog post, I want to briefly explore what this attack on Iran means, how it might escalate, and the legal questions surrounding it. This is not without precedent — even in Venezuela, there have been U.S.-led strikes against the Maduro regime that were carried out without consultation. Former President Trump did not seek approval from Congress, the United Nations, or allied nations in those actions. WHAT HAPPENED IN IRAN? First, let's discuss what happened in Iran over the weekend. T...

As 2025 draws to a close, I can’t say I’ll miss it. From a geopolitical perspective, the year has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. The war in Ukraine escalated in ways we haven’t seen before, while the so-called peace process took a darker turn, intensified in the worst possible way by Trump’s involvement. Across Europe, we witnessed a paradoxical moment: unprecedented unity alongside deepening fractures. In this blog post, I want to look back at the defining moments of 2025 and venture some predictions for 2026. Will Ukraine finally find a path to peace, or will the war continue much as it has? 2025 WAS A YEAR THAT WORE EVERYONE DOWN In 2025, the war in Ukraine showed no real signs of slowing down. Fighting along the front lines remained brutal, while Russia continued its campaign of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, especially targeting energy systems and civilian areas. Ukraine managed to hold its ground in many places, but the year increas...

Rare earths are extremely important to our modern world. You can find them in batteries, navigation systems, and other critical components used in defense equipment — such as jets, bombs, and missiles, for example. China controls a large portion of this market, both in mining rare earths and especially in refining them. What is happening now, and why is China restricting access to these materials? In this blog post, let's take a look at what rare earths are, why China holds a monopoly over them, and why it is now restricting access to these resources. WHAT ARE RARE EARTHS? Rare earths, also known as rare earth elements, are a group of 17 metallic elements essential to many modern technologies. Despite their name, most of these elements are quite common — they are relatively abundant in the Earth’s crust but are seldom found in concentrated deposits that are easy to mine. These elements include well-known names such as neodymium, dysprosium, and cerium, which are vital for producing...

Much has been said across Europe about the possibility of a future conflict with Russia. Various timelines have been suggested — three years, five years, or perhaps even sooner. There seems to be a growing consensus that Russia is preparing for some form of confrontation with Europe, whether a limited skirmish or a full-scale war. The timeline remains uncertain, largely because Putin’s troops and military resources are still deeply engaged in Ukraine. In this blog post, I want to explore this issue further. Are we truly on the brink of a NATO–Russia conflict? How prepared is Russia? And is Europe ready for what might come? WHY DO WE THINK RUSSIA IS INTERESTED IN WAR WITH EUROPE? There are several reasons why many believe Russia may be preparing for a future conflict with Europe. For years, Moscow has viewed NATO’s expansion as a direct challenge to its sphere of influence. The Kremlin frequently portrays NATO’s presence near its borders as Western aggression, using that narrative to ju...

This week marked UNGA (United Nations General Assembly) week. It's a time when world leaders gather at the UN headquarters in New York to debate and deliberate on pressing global issues. One of the major topics this year was the question of Palestinian statehood. Several countries, including France and the UK, have recently moved to formally recognize Palestine, joining more than 150 UN member states that already do so. At the same time, strong opposition remains, particularly from the United States and Israel. Amid these debates, a larger question loomed: does the United Nations still matter in today’s turbulent political landscape? In this blog post, I want to explore a simple but urgent question: Does the UN still matter? And if so, can it remain strong in a world where global systems seem increasingly fragile and outdated. WHAT IS THE UNITED NATIONS?   The United Nations was born in 1945 out of the wreckage of World War II, meant to replace the failed League of Nations and to...

With America’s long-term loyalty increasingly in question, and more countries forming defense agreements outside of NATO, a pressing question arises: Is Europe beginning to build its own alternative to NATO? Should it? Or is sticking with NATO still the smartest move for European security?  Over the past few years, shifts in U.S. foreign policy and rising global instability have led many European leaders to rethink their reliance on NATO as the cornerstone of their defense. At the same time, new regional alliances and military collaborations are emerging—some quietly, others more openly—raising questions about whether Europe is preparing for a future where NATO no longer plays the central role. In this blog post, we’ll explore whether NATO still holds up—and whether Europe might need a better option.   THE ROOTS OF NATO NATO was founded in 1949, at a time when much of Europe was still recovering from the devastation of World War II and facing a new threat: the rising influence...

The NATO summit is just around the corner, and it will be interesting to see how things play out. Reportedly, the meeting has been shortened to just 2,5 hours—supposedly to accommodate Donald Trump’s notoriously short attention span. Still, shorter doesn’t necessarily mean worse. It might just be the ideal length to keep him focused. In this blog post, I want to take a closer look at the 2% defense spending target—what it has actually achieved—and then explore the case for increasing that to 5%, and why that figure might be more realistic than it seems. Yes, countries are navigating a great deal of economic uncertainty right now, but investing in defense remains crucial. Let’s explore why.   NO TARGET, THEN 2% TARGET   For much of its history, NATO didn’t operate with a formal defense spending benchmark. Contributions were more of a gentleman’s agreement—everyone was expected to chip in, but how much and how seriously was left vague. Predictably, that led to imbalances. A hand...

This week has been a whirlwind of events that highlight just how fast and fractured the world has become. From a surprising election win in Romania to a tense phone call between Trump and Putin, and Netanyahu’s alarming announcement on Gaza, the news cycle is relentless—and it reveals deeper, unsettling shifts beneath the surface. These headlines aren’t isolated incidents; they’re symptoms of a global order unraveling before our eyes, and a democracy under siege from populism, nationalism, and growing instability. With all of this happening, I thought it was a good moment to take a step back and look at the bigger picture — the deeper issues behind these headlines: global order and the state of democracy. We'll explore the growing threats to democratic institutions, and the increasing sense of global instability.   WHAT TOOK 80 YEARS TO BUILD FELL IN MONTHS What many of us — the general public, experts, and global leaders alike — are beginning to openly acknowledge is that the glob...

On the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in the European theatre, I think it’s important to pause and reflect—not just on the sacrifices made by those who lived through it and died for our freedom, but also on the lessons we can still draw from that dark chapter in history. This post was partly inspired by how often I hear people compare today’s world to 1939, just before the outbreak of the war. And while we’re not living through the same exact circumstances, there are worrying echoes that are hard to ignore. Number 1: THE DANGERS OF TOTALITARIANISM AND UNCHECKED POWERS World War II showed us just how dangerous unchecked authoritarianism can be. Leaders like Hitler and Mussolini rose to power by playing on fear, exploiting national pain, and slowly eroding democratic systems from the inside. They controlled the media, silenced opposition, and used violence to push their ideologies. The result? A world plunged into conflict, and horrors we vowed never to repeat. Now, I’m not ...