EDITOR'S CORNER: Are We Ready for War?

Much has been said across Europe about the possibility of a future conflict with Russia. Various timelines have been suggested — three years, five years, or perhaps even sooner. There seems to be a growing consensus that Russia is preparing for some form of confrontation with Europe, whether a limited skirmish or a full-scale war. The timeline remains uncertain, largely because Putin’s troops and military resources are still deeply engaged in Ukraine.

In this blog post, I want to explore this issue further. Are we truly on the brink of a NATO–Russia conflict? How prepared is Russia? And is Europe ready for what might come?

WHY DO WE THINK RUSSIA IS INTERESTED IN WAR WITH EUROPE?

There are several reasons why many believe Russia may be preparing for a future conflict with Europe. For years, Moscow has viewed NATO’s expansion as a direct challenge to its sphere of influence. The Kremlin frequently portrays NATO’s presence near its borders as Western aggression, using that narrative to justify military build-ups and an increasingly assertive foreign policy.

The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was not only about Ukraine itself — it also served as a warning to the West that Russia would not tolerate further NATO involvement in what it considers its own backyard. Recent large-scale military exercises and increasingly aggressive rhetoric from Russian officials have only reinforced the perception that Moscow is preparing for confrontation rather than cooperation. This has been further demonstrated by a series of drone incursions before and after the ZAPAD 2025 military exercises conducted by Russia in Belarus.

Domestic politics also play a significant role. Putin’s regime depends heavily on nationalism, control, and the portrayal of external enemies to maintain its grip on power. As sanctions tighten and the war in Ukraine continues to strain the economy, the Kremlin may see a broader conflict as a way to rally public support and reinforce internal stability. This becomes even more pressing as Ukraine intensifies its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure using missiles and drones. As Kyiv’s ability to hit targets deeper within Russian territory improves, Moscow’s sense of vulnerability — and incentive to escalate — grows stronger.

Russia’s deepening relationships with China, Iran, and North Korea further suggest an effort to form a counterweight to Western influence. Taken together, these factors help explain why so many in Europe believe Moscow is laying the groundwork for a larger confrontation. Some even speculate that China could use Russia as a strategic distraction in Europe, diverting Western attention from potential plans for an attack on Taiwan.

WHAT ABOUT THE TIMELINE?

When it comes to the timeline, opinions across Europe vary widely. Some analysts warn that Russia could be ready to challenge NATO within the next three to five years, while others believe the timeline could be shorter depending on how the war in Ukraine evolves. Much of this uncertainty comes from the state of Russia’s military. 

Ukraine maintains a strong adversary in the battlefield. However, Moscow has already begun ramping up defense production, expanding recruitment, and restructuring its forces for a prolonged confrontation with the West. On top of this, the complete brainwashing of society began since the start of the full-scale invasion. It's a very common sight in Russia to see young children parading in military uniforms, pretending to fight the West. 

At the same time, Europe’s own readiness plays a major role in shaping any potential timeline. Many NATO members are increasing defense budgets and replenishing ammunition stockpiles, but progress remains uneven. If Moscow senses weakness or hesitation among European governments, it could be tempted to act sooner. On the other hand, if NATO continues to strengthen its deterrence posture, Russia may choose to wait until it feels better prepared — making the timeline less a fixed prediction and more a moving target.

SO, IS EUROPE PREPARED?

Europe’s preparedness is a complex question. On paper, NATO remains the most powerful military alliance in the world, but many European countries have only recently begun to reverse decades of underinvestment in defense. The war in Ukraine has exposed critical weaknesses — from limited ammunition reserves to slow industrial production and outdated logistics networks. While some nations, like Poland and the Baltic states, have accelerated military spending and procurement, others are still catching up. The pace of rearmament across the continent is improving, but it’s uneven and, in some cases, too slow to meet the potential threat.

That said, Europe is far more alert and unified than it was a few years ago. The rapid coordination on sanctions, weapons deliveries to Ukraine, and the strengthening of NATO’s eastern flank all signal a shift in mindset. The alliance has expanded with Finland and Sweden joining, further tightening the strategic perimeter around Russia. 

Still, true readiness goes beyond troop numbers or hardware — it depends on political will, resilience, and the ability to sustain long-term defense efforts. In that sense, Europe is preparing, but whether it will be ready in time remains an open question.

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM RUSSIA?

All that being said, Russia still possesses the capability to carry out hybrid warfare operations against the West. We’ve already seen examples of this through cyberattacks on critical European infrastructure, explosive devices hidden in DHL packages intended to damage cargo planes, and fires deliberately set in logistics centers in Latvia and Poland. Even incidents like the cutting of undersea communication cables in the Baltic Sea highlight Moscow’s willingness to disrupt and intimidate without engaging in open conflict.

Russia has many tools at its disposal that don’t involve direct, large-scale warfare. Sabotage, targeted assassinations, terrorist-style attacks, arson, and assaults on key personnel or civilians are all part of the Kremlin’s playbook. Moscow is also adept at exploiting political and social divisions, fueling unrest or mass protests to weaken European unity from within.

In a worst-case scenario, Russia could escalate its hybrid tactics by targeting civilian or symbolic assets — for example, downing an aircraft or attacking a passenger ship in the Baltics, or striking a crowded public space such as a Christmas market, concert hall, or major tourist destination. Europe must be vigilant and prepared for a broad range of threats, not just conventional warfare.

CONCLUSION 

The threat from Russia may not yet have materialized into open conflict, but the signs of preparation, provocation, and hybrid aggression are impossible to ignore. Whether through military buildup, cyber warfare, or political destabilization, Moscow is testing the West’s resolve. 

The question is not only if Europe can defend itself, but whether it can stay united, focused, and ready in the face of uncertainty. Deterrence begins with preparedness — and now is the time to take that responsibility seriously.