EDITOR'S CORNER: What will 2026 Look Like?
As 2025 draws to a close, I can’t say I’ll miss it. From a geopolitical perspective, the year has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. The war in Ukraine escalated in ways we haven’t seen before, while the so-called peace process took a darker turn, intensified in the worst possible way by Trump’s involvement. Across Europe, we witnessed a paradoxical moment: unprecedented unity alongside deepening fractures.
In this blog post, I want to look back at the defining moments of 2025 and venture some predictions for 2026. Will Ukraine finally find a path to peace, or will the war continue much as it has?
In 2025, the war in Ukraine showed no real signs of slowing down. Fighting along the front lines remained brutal, while Russia continued its campaign of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, especially targeting energy systems and civilian areas. Ukraine managed to hold its ground in many places, but the year increasingly felt like a war of exhaustion. At home, pressure also mounted on the government, most notably with large anti-corruption protests in the summer that forced Kyiv to reverse controversial legislation, a reminder that the country was trying to defend both its territory and its democratic standards at the same time.
Diplomatically, the year was turbulent and often tense. In February, a much-anticipated meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump blew up publicly, exposing deep disagreements over US support and the shape of any future peace deal. That clash set the tone for the months that followed, as Ukraine worried about wavering Western backing while Europe tried to project unity, even as its internal divisions became harder to ignore.
By mid-year, attention shifted toward uneasy diplomacy. A July US-Russia summit raised alarm in Kyiv and across Europe, fueling fears that Ukraine’s future was being discussed without Ukraine fully at the table. In the final months of the year, peace talks intensified again but were overshadowed by renewed violence and sharp rhetoric from Moscow, including Russian claims of an attack on Putin’s residence that further hardened the Kremlin’s stance. As 2025 ends, Ukraine stands at a crossroads: exhausted, still under fire, and facing a 2026 that could bring either a fragile path toward peace or more of the same grinding war.
TENSIONS SIMMERED ACROSS THE REST OF THE WORLD
Beyond Ukraine, 2025 felt like a year when multiple conflicts simmered or outright burned at the same time. In Gaza, the war dragged on with enormous civilian suffering, even as a fragile Israel–Gaza peace plan emerged late in the year. The agreement brought temporary pauses in fighting and limited humanitarian access, but it remained extremely shaky, with frequent violations and little trust on either side. Nearby, the risk of regional escalation never fully disappeared. Meanwhile, Sudan’s civil war continued to devastate the country with barely any global attention, turning into one of the worst humanitarian crises in the world, marked by famine, displacement, and the collapse of basic state structures.
Tensions elsewhere added to the sense of global strain. Relations between Iran and the United States remained tense throughout the year, driven by Iran’s regional influence, nuclear ambitions, and recurring proxy clashes that kept the Middle East on edge. In the Western Hemisphere, relations between Venezuela and the US also deteriorated, with disputes over sanctions, elections, and regional security flaring up again. Taken together, these conflicts made 2025 feel less like a series of isolated crises and more like a connected breakdown, where instability in one region fed uncertainty everywhere else.
WHAT WILL 2026 BRING?
As 2026 approaches, the world faces the possibility of new escalations layered on top of unresolved wars. Tensions between Venezuela and the United States could spill over if sanctions, political instability, or regional incidents intensify, while in East Asia, Taiwan remains one of the most dangerous flashpoints on the planet. Any miscalculation involving China, Taiwan, and the United States would have global consequences, turning pressure campaigns or military exercises into something far more serious. These standoffs, combined with fragile ceasefires elsewhere, reinforce the sense that the international system is stretched thin and increasingly vulnerable to sudden shocks.
In Ukraine, 2026 may be defined by what peace plans actually deliver rather than what they promise. Diplomatic proposals will mean little unless they include credible security guarantees, clear enforcement mechanisms, and a path toward long term stability and reconstruction. A ceasefire that merely freezes the conflict risks leaving Ukraine exposed and Europe unstable, while a rushed settlement could reward aggression. Whether 2026 becomes a year of cautious progress or renewed violence will depend on how much compromise global powers are willing to make, and whether Ukraine is allowed to shape its own future rather than having it decided for them.
CONCLUSION
As the calendar turns to 2026, the mood is less hopeful than uncertain. The past year showed how easily conflicts can deepen, spread, or harden into something permanent, and how fragile diplomacy remains in a divided world. Whether the coming year brings real steps toward peace or further escalation will depend on choices made under pressure, not rhetoric.
After a long and exhausting 2025, 2026 feels like a test of whether the world can finally pull back from the edge or continue drifting toward greater instability.
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