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As 2025 draws to a close, I can’t say I’ll miss it. From a geopolitical perspective, the year has been nothing short of a rollercoaster. The war in Ukraine escalated in ways we haven’t seen before, while the so-called peace process took a darker turn, intensified in the worst possible way by Trump’s involvement. Across Europe, we witnessed a paradoxical moment: unprecedented unity alongside deepening fractures. In this blog post, I want to look back at the defining moments of 2025 and venture some predictions for 2026. Will Ukraine finally find a path to peace, or will the war continue much as it has? 2025 WAS A YEAR THAT WORE EVERYONE DOWN In 2025, the war in Ukraine showed no real signs of slowing down. Fighting along the front lines remained brutal, while Russia continued its campaign of missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities and infrastructure, especially targeting energy systems and civilian areas. Ukraine managed to hold its ground in many places, but the year increas...

As we approach Christmas, I wanted to take a moment to reflect on what is happening in Ukraine right now. Why do this? Because it’s important to remember that many of us are spending this season in peace, surrounded by friends and family, sharing a Christmas dinner or lunch. Some of us may still be working. Others may not have friends or family to spend this time with, and the season can feel lonely. But one thing many of us share is peace, something that cannot be taken for granted. This is what we explore in this blog post. MASSIVE ATTACKS AT CHRISTMAS Overnight and into today, Russia carried out a massive drone and missile attack across Ukraine, one of the most intense in recent weeks. Hundreds of drones and missiles targeted multiple regions, striking residential areas and critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities. At least three civilians were reported killed, including a child, and many areas experienced power outages during freezing winter conditions. Ukrainian air...

This week proved to be a pivotal one for the European Union, as leaders gathered for the European Council Summit on 18 and 19 December. The most anticipated question was whether Europe would use the €210 billion of Russian funds frozen in Euroclear to support Ukraine. European leaders debated the issue at length, with a few unexpected moments along the way. The final decision may not have been entirely surprising, yet it still carried elements of unpredictability. In this blog post, we’ll take a closer look at what happened during the summit and explore its potential impact. FUNDS FROZEN, A LONG AWAITED DECISION At the same summit, EU leaders also decided to freeze Russian state assets held at Euroclear indefinitely. This concerns roughly €210 billion in assets belonging to the Russian central bank, which had already been frozen under EU sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Previously, the freeze had to be renewed every six months by unanimous agreement, creating t...

The past few days have been a rollercoaster of meetings, headlines, and breaking news surrounding the ongoing peace process in Ukraine. Since the United States submitted its widely criticized 28-point peace plan, we’ve seen several revised iterations, culminating in a European-approved version that reportedly contains 20 points. Since Sunday, European leaders and U.S. envoys have been meeting in Berlin, signaling cautious progress. We are close, but still very far . In this blog post, we’ll break down the latest developments in the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, while also examining some of the troubling consequences that have emerged from this drawn-out and deeply complex process.   WHAT HAS BEEN HAPPENING SO FAR? Over the past few days, Ukraine has reported measurable progress in peace-related talks, largely through discussions with U.S. and European representatives rather than direct negotiations with Russia. Meetings in Berlin have centered on a potential framew...

The United States’ 2025 National Security Strategy was published on December 4th. It sets out the priorities of the U.S. government for the upcoming administration, its main goals, strategic direction, and expectations for global partners, as well as how it intends to position itself on the world stage. It is a critical document that U.S. allies look to in order to understand how to navigate their relationships with an increasingly unpredictable Trump administration. Unfortunately, despite its significance, this 30 page document falls short. It presents a deeply insular “America First” approach, combined with the assertion that the United States can intervene anywhere it deems necessary in the name of “protecting the interests of the American people.” In practical terms, this means asserting authority over other nations’ governments, laws, and internal affairs whenever Washington labels something a threat. In this blog post, I will break down the strategy, focusing especially on what ...

For decades, American diplomacy has traditionally followed a structured and institutional approach shaped by the State Department, multilateral cooperation, and standardized policy frameworks. The current U.S. strategy in mediating the Ukraine–Russia peace process, however, looks extremely different. Rather than following classical diplomatic norms, Washington is now approaching the conflict as though it were a business negotiation. This is most evident in the strong involvement of Steve Witkoff, the US envoy with a background in real estate, investment, and deal-making. Their methods reflect the growing influence of American business culture on global conflict resolution, due to Trump's own background in this area. The result is an approach that treats the war not only as a geopolitical crisis but also as a complex transaction in which leverage, incentives, and practical outcomes matter more than ideological alignment. In this blog post, let's analyze how this approach will be...