RUSSIA: How Well Do Sanctions Work?
Every week, it seems, we hear that Russia is on the brink of financial ruin. "Soon they’ll have to stop the war!" or "Russia is broke!" — headlines around the world love to exaggerate how close Russia supposedly is to collapse.
Since 2022, the West has imposed harsh sanctions on Russia in response to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
In this blog post, we’ll take a broad look at what kinds of sanctions exist and whether they’re actually working. We’ll also explore whether this is the right way to go about stopping Russia and moving closer to peace.
SANCTION ON RUSSIA IN BRIEF
Since the start of the full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, Western countries have imposed some of the most extensive sanctions in modern history on Russia. These measures have targeted key sectors of the Russian economy, including energy, finance, defense, and technology. Russian citizens have been largely banned from traveling to Europe, and Russian flights are prohibited from entering European airspace. Major Russian banks have been cut off from the SWIFT international payment system, severely restricting their access to global capital. In addition, sanctions on high-tech exports have sought to weaken Russia’s military-industrial base by limiting access to critical components such as semiconductors and aircraft parts.
Energy has long been one of Russia’s most profitable industries, making energy-related sanctions both the most impactful and the most complex. Several EU countries continue to purchase Russian gas, and the bloc was heavily dependent on Russian oil and gas at the onset of the invasion. Over the past few years, however, the European Union has gradually reduced its imports and, together with the G7, implemented price caps. These measures have forced Russia to redirect much of its energy exports to Asia at significantly discounted rates. While Moscow continues to earn substantial revenue from energy sales, the long-term strain on its budget, infrastructure, and technological development has been considerable.
Despite the sweeping sanctions, Russia has managed to keep its economy afloat. The country’s economic resilience has proven stronger than many anticipated, bolstered by tight state control, high global energy prices, and expanded trade with China, India, and Türkiye. Nonetheless, Russia is not immune to the long-term effects of isolation. The impact of sanctions is increasingly visible in the form of reduced foreign investment, difficulties maintaining a workforce outside the defense sector, and ongoing fuel shortages.
DO SANCTIONS WORK?
Contrary to popular belief, sanctions are a slow-burning tool. They are designed to exert pressure gradually and create long-term economic strain rather than immediate collapse. Sanctions are not a magical solution that can bring down the Russian economy or society overnight. Instead, their effectiveness relies on persistence and international unity. The sanctions are working—but only if countries remain committed to enforcing them. This consistency is crucial, as some states, organizations, and intermediaries around the world continue to help Russia circumvent restrictions, thereby undermining their overall impact.
The consequences of sanctions are already visible in several key sectors. Take Aeroflot, Russia’s flagship airline, for example. Many of its aircraft remain grounded due to a lack of spare parts and maintenance options, as Western suppliers have withdrawn from the market. The aviation industry, once a symbol of Russian connectivity, now struggles to sustain operations. The energy sector tells a similar story. As mentioned earlier, Russia is losing revenue, particularly following the latest U.S. sanctions targeting its oil exports. With limited access to major Western markets, Moscow has been forced to sell its crude oil to the lowest bidders, often at steep discounts, diminishing its profit margins and weakening a crucial source of state income.
Russia’s export sector as a whole is also feeling the strain. Trade with Western economies has plummeted, leaving the Kremlin increasingly dependent on partners like China, India, and, to a lesser extent, North Korea. These relationships, however, are far from equal—Russia often trades on unfavorable terms, exchanging raw materials for manufactured goods and technology it can no longer source elsewhere. This imbalance highlights how sanctions, though slow in effect, are steadily reshaping the structure of Russia’s economy and limiting its long-term growth potential.
WHO IS HELPING CIRCUMVENT SANCTIONS AND HOW?
When examining sanctions evasion, two main groups emerge: those countries that actively assist Russia and those that, while not directly breaking sanctions, find ways to bypass them—either openly or covertly. Nations such as China, India, Türkiye, and the United Arab Emirates have become crucial trading partners for Moscow, filling the economic gaps left by Western companies. Although many of these states have not officially violated sanctions, they have offered alternative markets for Russian oil, gas, and other key commodities. China and India, for example, have significantly increased their imports of discounted Russian crude, helping sustain the Kremlin’s vital revenue streams despite Western restrictions. Meanwhile, Türkiye and the UAE have served as intermediary hubs, facilitating the re-export of sanctioned goods and technologies through intricate supply chains that often rely on shell companies or third-party logistics networks.
Beyond state-level support, a web of private entities and shadow intermediaries also contributes to sanctions evasion. Russian firms have established subsidiaries in neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan, Armenia, and Georgia to continue importing Western-made goods indirectly. Parallel import systems have sprung up to secure restricted technologies—including microchips, industrial machinery, and aircraft parts—by routing them through multiple jurisdictions before reaching Russia. The growing use of alternative financial systems and digital currencies further obscures money flows and trade activity. These practices highlight the challenges of enforcing global sanctions, particularly when economic and geopolitical interests override collective accountability.
The European Union has attempted to tighten enforcement, introducing measures such as sanctions on Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers used to transport oil covertly. However, completely halting circumvention remains a difficult task, given the involvement of numerous intermediaries and willing partners. Overall, the sanctions are working, but their success depends on consistent international pressure. Russia continues to lobby for their removal in exchange for concessions, yet lifting them prematurely would only embolden further aggression. Sanctions should remain in place until the war is fully over—and until there is lasting assurance that Russia will not threaten Ukraine again, which, realistically, may be a very long time.
CONCLUSION
In conclusion, while sanctions against Russia have not caused an immediate economic collapse, they are steadily eroding the country’s financial stability and technological capacity. Their long-term impact is evident across key sectors such as energy, aviation, and exports, forcing Moscow to rely on a shrinking circle of trade partners and adopt increasingly desperate measures to sustain its economy.
However, the effectiveness of these sanctions depends heavily on global unity and consistent enforcement. As long as nations and private actors continue to help Russia circumvent restrictions, the pressure will be diluted. Still, if maintained and strengthened, sanctions remain one of the most powerful non-military tools available to weaken Russia’s war machine and limit its ability to wage future aggression against Ukraine.
References
Comments
Post a Comment