EDITOR'S CORNER: Europe at the Crossroads, Time to Confront Russia’s Escalation

Europe feels like it’s edging closer to the brink. What started as odd drone sightings has now escalated into repeated air incursions—first from unknown actors, then unmistakably from Russian planes. And when it comes to those drones, Europe’s leaders aren’t mincing words: most either point the finger at Moscow or outright declare it’s Russia testing the waters.

But why now? Why this sudden escalation, and why at such a rapid pace?

In this post, we’ll dig into what’s happening inside Russia, where Ukraine stands in all of this, and what it could mean for Europe’s future. Is the continent really ready for a skirmish—or something far worse, a direct clash with Russia? And perhaps the most uncomfortable question of all: do Europeans themselves have the will, the grit, the stomach for escalation and the possibility of war?

 AIR INCURSIONS ALL OVER EUROPE 

Throughout September, tensions in Europe have spiked, with repeated drone and aircraft incursions rattling several countries. The pattern began just before Russia’s large-scale Zapad 2025 military exercises in mid-September and has continued since.

Poland was hit first, when around 19 drones crossed its airspace on 9–10 September. Several were shot down, and others were later identified as unarmed Geran-type drones, though Moscow denied any involvement. Not long after, Estonia reported a serious incident: three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered its airspace near Vaindloo Island over the Gulf of Finland, remaining inside for about 12 minutes before being intercepted.

Denmark has also faced a wave of drone sightings, so disruptive that airports were briefly shut down on several occasions. The situation grew so concerning that, ahead of the informal EU summit on 1 October and the European Political Community summit on 2 October in Copenhagen, the government imposed a nationwide ban on all civilian drone flights.

Elsewhere, Germany has investigated suspicious drone activity over military and strategic sites, while Poland has continued to report additional sightings above sensitive infrastructure. Together, these incidents suggest a clear pattern of probing Europe’s defenses, raising questions about whether they are part of a wider campaign to test NATO’s response and resilience. So, where do we go from here? 

ARTICLE 4, BUT NOT ARTICLE 5... YET! 

Poland made a decisive move on 10 September when it formally invoked NATO’s Article 4, responding to the mass drone incursions into its airspace the night before. The step highlighted how seriously Warsaw views the threat, framing it not just as a national issue but as a direct challenge to European security.

Denmark, for its part, has voiced deep concern over the wave of drones disrupting its territory and even floated the possibility of requesting Article 4 consultations. So far, however, Copenhagen has stopped short of taking that step.

Article 4 of the NATO treaty allows any member state to call for urgent consultations whenever it believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security is under threat. Unlike Article 5—which binds allies to collective defense—Article 4 does not trigger automatic military action. Instead, it serves as a political mechanism to rally allies, share intelligence, and coordinate responses. Historically invoked only in moments of crisis, its use signals both to NATO and its adversaries that the situation is being treated with utmost seriousness.

Following these consultations, there was a general consensus that states had the right to shoot down drones or aircraft if they posed a clear threat. Even Donald Trump, during an interview with Zelenskyy in New York at UNGA week, expressed support for this stance. Whether European governments will actually exercise that right, however, remains to be seen.

WHY IS RUSSIA DOING THIS?

Russia isn’t just pushing boundaries—it’s probing, testing, and watching how we react. The pace of escalation is accelerating, and yet too many European leaders still behave as if this is business as usual. It isn’t.

Every drone that slips into our skies, every Russian jet that darts across our borders, is a deliberate test. The Kremlin wants to clock NATO’s response times, observe the tools we deploy, and, above all, read our resolve. Do we meet these provocations with firmness, or do we flinch and dither? And make no mistake, it isn’t only governments under scrutiny. Moscow is measuring the will of Europe’s citizens: how much brinkmanship are we willing to endure before nerves crack, how much risk of war the public will accept before demanding retreat.

The real showdown will come when a Russian aircraft is finally brought down and a pilot doesn’t make it home. That moment will strip away the probing games and force Moscow to reveal its hand.

At the same time, the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for blame. Prominent Russian milbloggers and even officials have started spinning a story that Ukraine is repairing captured Russian drones, strapping them with explosives, and preparing to attack NATO facilities in Poland. It’s almost too convenient—a narrative designed to pre-justify sabotage, or perhaps to mask Russia’s own plans. Call it what it is: information warfare, paving the way for whatever “accident” Moscow decides to engineer next.

 MY OPINION

I've said it many times: it’s time for us to wake up. Things are escalating faster and worse than ever. Every month, something new happens. The war in Ukraine has grown more vicious, and civilian deaths have surged dramatically. Each drone Russia sends into Ukraine is a calculated strategy—to weaken Ukrainian resolve, to break their fighting spirit, and to make ordinary Ukrainians pay with the blood of their families and friends. Each drone, each jet, and every close call in Europe is part of a broader strategy: to expose our hesitation and weakness, to let Putin project strength at home, and to convince Russians that they are part of something grander than the brutal realities on the ground in Ukraine.

And what is that reality? Russia is barely winning anything. The bloodshed is massive, and the cost of war rises by the day. Russians are losing loved ones, facing financial hardships, and seeing their main economic artery—oil—undermined. Yet they continue to fight. Meanwhile, we remain blind and foolish despite all the warnings. Our leaders tread cautiously, trying not to provoke Putin, treating these incursions and provocations as isolated incidents instead of clear signals of an escalating threat. This complacency is not just reckless, it invites further provocation.

I also see Russia preparing for another phase of this war against Europe. Let me be clear: they are at war with us. We—NATO, we—Europe—are not at war with anyone. The story about Ukraine repurposing Russian drones is a convenient smokescreen from Moscow. It’s false, but it shows the Kremlin’s mastery of information warfare: shaping perceptions, spreading doubt, and preemptively blaming others for actions it may plan itself. Europe cannot afford to be reactive. 

CONCLUSION

Europe stands at a crossroads: hesitation invites escalation, and indecision could be catastrophic. We must act with clarity, resolve and courage—now, before Russia forces our hand. That means clear-eyed preparedness and the willingness to make hard decisions ahead of any catastrophe, because when the moment comes, hesitation will cost far more than pride.

The next time a Russian plane or drone violates European airspace, the response must be unequivocal: bring it down. Moscow should learn its lesson quickly. We need to be bolder, more forward-leaning, and unmistakably prepared to defend our skies.