With America’s long-term loyalty increasingly in question, and more countries forming defense agreements outside of NATO, a pressing question arises: Is Europe beginning to build its own alternative to NATO? Should it? Or is sticking with NATO still the smartest move for European security?
Over the past few years, shifts in U.S. foreign policy and rising global instability have led many European leaders to rethink their reliance on NATO as the cornerstone of their defense. At the same time, new regional alliances and military collaborations are emerging—some quietly, others more openly—raising questions about whether Europe is preparing for a future where NATO no longer plays the central role.
In this blog post, we’ll explore whether NATO still holds up—and whether Europe might need a better option.
THE ROOTS OF NATONATO was founded in 1949, at a time when much of Europe was still recovering from the devastation of World War II and facing a new threat: the rising influence of the Soviet Union. The concept behind the alliance was simple but powerful—if one member was attacked, the others would step in to defend it. For countries still picking up the pieces, that collective security promise—especially with the military strength of the United States behind it—offered a level of protection and stability no single nation could provide alone.
But NATO was never just about military might. It was also a political statement—a united front of democratic nations committed to keeping Europe free and secure in a divided and uncertain world. As the Cold War intensified, NATO became the backbone of Western defense, both physically and ideologically. And while its original mission may have ended with the fall of the Soviet Union, the alliance has endured. Still, that raises an important question: does NATO still meet Europe's security needs, or is it a relic of a bygone era?
A large part of NATO’s strength still depends on American power. But, as we've discussed in earlier posts, the U.S. is slowly turning inward—grappling with domestic issues and showing signs of a more isolationist approach. To be clear, Europe shouldn't rely on the U.S. like a child depends on a parent. But if we can’t count on Washington to show up when it matters most, then what’s the backup plan?
THE EUROPEAN UNION'S DEFENSE PLAN
The European Union doesn’t have a single defense guarantee like NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause, but it has been steadily building a stronger framework for military cooperation and strategic autonomy. At the center of this effort is the Common Security and Defence Policy, which allows the EU to carry out peacekeeping, crisis management, and conflict prevention missions.
While these operations tend to be non-combat, they signal the EU’s growing ambition to take a more active role in global security. Initiatives like PESCO—the Permanent Structured Cooperation—and the European Defence Fund aim to deepen collaboration among member states, streamline defense spending, and develop joint military capabilities.
This year, the European Commission launched the EU ReArm project, now renamed Readiness 2030, a huge €800 billion plan to boost Europe’s military resilience and reduce dependence on the United States. The initiative lets countries temporarily suspend fiscal rules, unlocking up to €650 billion in defense spending, alongside €150 billion in low-interest loans for joint purchases of EU-made defense equipment. It also focuses on redirecting existing EU funds toward defense priorities, investing in research and development, and increasing production of military hardware.
A key part of the plan is integrating with Ukraine’s rapidly evolving defense industry—showing Europe’s expanding role in regional security. Taken together, these efforts aim to make Europe more independent and capable of defending itself without relying solely on the U.S. or NATO—if and when the moment calls for it.
EU'S MUTUAL DEFENSE AGREEMENTS
The European Union has been actively building bilateral security and defense partnerships with several countries, including Norway, Moldova, South Korea, Japan, Albania, North Macedonia, Canada, and Australia. These partnerships are tailored to the unique interests of both the EU and its partners, aiming to deepen cooperation across political, operational, and industrial areas. Norway, a long-time NATO member and part of the European Economic Area, was one of the first countries to establish such a partnership, reflecting a strong foundation of shared security goals.
The EU’s partnerships with these countries each serve distinct strategic purposes. The partnership with Moldova highlights the EU’s commitment to supporting regional security and stability amid ongoing challenges. In Asia and the Indo-Pacific region, the EU’s ties with South Korea, Japan, and Australia focus on maritime security, cyber defense, counter-terrorism, and crisis management, showing Europe’s growing engagement beyond its immediate neighborhood. Meanwhile, partnerships with Albania and North Macedonia reflect the EU’s dedication to promoting stability and security in the Western Balkans, reinforcing its broader role in regional peace and cooperation. Canada, a close NATO ally, collaborates with the EU on a range of defense and security issues, strengthening transatlantic ties and joint efforts in global security challenges.
WHAT DOES THIS ALL MEAN?
It’s clear that Europe has the relationships and financial resources to build a defense system outside of NATO—one that could become a strong and effective collaboration among European countries. But there are some significant challenges to consider.
The biggest hurdle is that, since the end of World War II, almost all European military strategies and systems have been designed with America as a central player. The notable exception has been France, which has long pursued a more independent defense policy. Now, many European countries are looking to France to extend its nuclear umbrella across the continent. At the same time, most European military equipment and weapons come from the U.S., largely because American systems are reliable, effective, and affordable. This close reliance has also ensured that America remains deeply invested in European security.
The United States still has the largest military and defense budget in the world. Europe can’t simply decide to stop depending on America entirely. Doing so risks provoking a backlash, especially from President Trump, which could have serious consequences. Moreover, many European countries aren’t equipped to counterbalance the U.S. militarily—a fact underscored by Trump’s infamous comments about Greenland. While it might sound absurd, no European country has ever seriously planned to defend itself against the U.S.. Even now, the idea seems far-fetched!
That said, Europe’s growing push for strategic autonomy makes sense. Relying too heavily on the U.S. leaves Europe vulnerable to shifts in American politics and priorities. By investing in its own defense capabilities and strengthening cooperation among member states, Europe can build resilience and reduce risks tied to overdependence. It’s not about cutting ties with the U.S., but about creating a more balanced, capable partnership that reflects today’s geopolitical realities.
CONCLUSION
Europe is facing a big decision about its defense future. With America’s commitment less certain and new partnerships forming, the EU is pushing initiatives like Readiness 2030 to build stronger military capabilities and reduce reliance on the U.S. At the same time, it’s deepening ties with countries like Canada, Japan, and Australia to boost security cooperation.
But breaking away from America isn’t simple. For decades, Europe’s defense has leaned heavily on U.S. power, especially when it comes to nuclear protection and weapons. While the U.S. remains the dominant force, Europe wants to balance that dependence by growing its own strength—building a defense that can stand on its own, without cutting ties with its longtime ally.
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