Since last week, global attention has been gripped by the rapidly escalating crisis in the Middle East. Israel’s unprecedented strike on Iranian nuclear facilities has raised urgent questions: Will this conflict spiral into a broader regional war? Will the United States be drawn in? And what role might Russia play, given its close ties with Tehran?
But in this blog post, I want to shift the focus. Rather than speculate on what may unfold in the Middle East, I want to examine how this development could impact the ongoing war in Ukraine. For those of us in Europe, it's crucial that we don’t lose sight of the conflict unfolding on our doorstep—even as new crises emerge elsewhere.
THE EVENTS IN IRAN
We discussed this briefly in our last post on asymmetric warfare. Basically, on 13th June 2025, 61 days after Trump's ultimatum to Iran to come to the negotiating table, Israel launched Operation "Rising Lion".
This was a large-scale, coordinated Israeli military operation targeting Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure. It began with a covert infiltration by Mossad, which involved smuggling precision-guided munitions and explosive drones into Iran and disabling key air defense systems through sabotage.
Once Iran’s radar and surface-to-air missile systems were compromised, Israel launched a massive aerial assault involving around 200 fighter jets. These strikes hit approximately 100 strategic targets, including nuclear facilities at Natanz, missile launch sites, chemical weapons research centers, and the headquarters of the IRGC. The operation also eliminated several high-ranking Iranian officials and nuclear scientists, effectively decapitating large portions of Iran’s military and strategic leadership.
The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, described the operation as a necessary preemptive strike to neutralize Iran’s ability to produce nuclear weapons and deter future threats. In response, Iran declared the attack a declaration of war and launched missile and drone retaliation toward Israel, significantly increasing the risk of a broader regional conflict. The scale, precision, and success of Operation "Rising Lion" marked a dramatic escalation in the long-standing Israeli-Iranian shadow war, setting a new precedent for direct military engagement between the two nations. The strike not only delivered a serious blow to Iran’s military infrastructure but also underscored Israel’s capability and willingness to act unilaterally in defense of its national security.
HOW WILL THIS AFFECT EVENTS IN OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD?
Though the events are unfolding in the Middle East, their consequences are being felt across the globe. Much of the global response will hinge on what decision the United States makes next. If President Trump decides to commit American forces or resources to the conflict, it would significantly shift U.S. focus away from Ukraine. In fact, we've already seen military aid and equipment originally designated for Ukraine redirected to support Israel.
This shift carries serious implications. Ukraine risks being sidelined, as Washington may be unwilling—or politically unable—to sustain large-scale support for two simultaneous conflicts. Between Israel and Ukraine, Israel holds more sway with Trump, both strategically and politically. Additionally, rising global energy prices could provide Russia with a much-needed financial windfall, strengthening its position. On the other hand, a war with Iran could reduce Tehran's ability to supply weapons and drones to Russia. Still, this may only be a temporary setback, as Russia has developed the capacity to produce its own Shahed-style drones domestically.
Russia has signaled that it may escalate its involvement if the United States becomes directly engaged in the conflict with Iran. Such a move could significantly raise tensions, potentially pushing the situation toward a wider, more dangerous confrontation. It might also encourage Russia to intensify its hybrid warfare tactics against the West, including cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and covert operations. However, if Russia does choose to get involved militarily in the Middle East, questions remain about its capacity to do so effectively.
With much of its military resources already stretched thin due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, it’s unclear what additional troops and equipment Moscow could realistically deploy to a second front without further straining its capabilities. This limitation could constrain Russia’s ability to project power beyond its current commitments, even as it seeks to capitalize on the broader geopolitical instability.
WHAT ABOUT CHINA?
A distracted United States could also play directly into China’s hands. Beijing has long viewed the question of Taiwan as a matter of national destiny, and any major conflict that consumes American attention—such as a war with Iran—creates a strategic window of opportunity. If the U.S. becomes deeply involved in the Middle East, and Russia simultaneously escalates its aggression in Europe, Washington could be forced to divide its military and diplomatic focus. In such a scenario, China may calculate that the U.S. would struggle to sustain active engagement on three separate fronts: the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the Indo-Pacific.
This strategic overstretch could delay or weaken America’s ability to respond decisively to a Chinese move against Taiwan. Even the perception of U.S. distraction or indecision might embolden China to act more assertively in the South China Sea or increase pressure on Taiwan through hybrid or gray-zone tactics. For China, timing is everything—and a moment of American vulnerability or divided attention could be seen as the ideal opportunity to test the boundaries of U.S. resolve in the Asia-Pacific.
CONCLUSION
The world is entering a tense and uncertain moment. A war in the Middle East could pull major powers in different directions, leaving places like Ukraine vulnerable and opening the door for countries like Russia and China to take advantage. With so many crises unfolding at once, it's more important than ever to stay focused—not just on what’s happening far away, but also on what’s happening closer to home.
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