EDITOR'S CORNER: Russia Marches to Nowhere on Victory Day

On Friday, 9th May 2025, Russia marks 80 years since the end of World War II and the defeat of Nazism—a date of profound national pride. For many Russians, the anniversary holds extra weight this year, as the Kremlin frames its war in Ukraine as a continuation of that same fight—against so-called "Ukrainian Nazis" on Ukraine’s eastern front. A claim that’s patently false, yet apparently sufficient to justify the staggering loss of nearly a million Russian soldiers to date.

In this post, we’ll dig into some key questions surrounding Russia’s Victory Day parade: Should Ukraine respect Putin’s proposed ceasefire? And will the so-called Axis of Evil leaders actually show up? The most watched guest of all—China’s Xi Jinping, who plans to make it an official visit, along with signing several bilateral agreements. 

UKRAINE DOES NOT GUARANTEE ANYONE'S SAFETY

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made it clear: Ukraine offers no guarantees of safety to anyone attending the May 9th parade in Moscow. Not necessarily because Ukraine plans to act—but because there’s a very real possibility that Russia could stage an attack on its own event and pin the blame on Ukraine or the West.

Confirmed foreign leaders set to attend the Victory Day in Moscow are: 

• Milorad Dodik, President of the Republika Srpska
• Xi Jinping, President of China 
• Aleksandr Lukashenko, President of Belarus 
• Nicolás Maduro, President of Venezuela
• Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, President of Brazil 
• As well as presidents from other countries such as Burkina Faso, Vietnam, Cuba, Azerbaijan, Palestine, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Abkhazia, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan. 

Among the originally invited guests was Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who cancelled his attendance following the recent attack on Indian tourists in Kashmir. From Europe, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić and Slovak President Robert Fico were also expected, but both have reportedly fallen ill and may no longer attend. It is reported for now that Vučić is too sick to fly, and Fico still plans to come. 

PUTIN'S VICTORY DAY CEASEFIRE

The Kremlin has proposed a brief three-day ceasefire around Victory Day, from 8 to 10 May. Not out of kindness, of course, but because the Russian leadership fears a Ukrainian strikes—and that would be a massive humiliation for Putin. No doubt, every available air defense system will be on high alert.

From Ukraine’s perspective, the military parade is a legitimate target. President Zelenskyy responded by pointing to the original 30-day unconditional ceasefire discussed with American officials—a far more serious proposal. Ukraine has no intention of honoring the Kremlin’s symbolic three-day pause. As Zelenskyy put it, this is just a performance by Moscow to create a "pleasant atmosphere" for Putin to pose with his new foreign friends and pretend he's no longer isolated.

SHOULD URKAINE STRIKE?

The biggest questions on everyone’s minds:

1. Will Ukraine strike on Victory Day—or are they planning something else?
2. Should they strike? Or would that risk escalation and upsetting the Americans?

Let’s start with the first. It’s the easiest to answer: we don’t know. Zelenskyy and Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), have dropped hints that something may be in the works. But with high-profile world leaders expected to attend, any action that results in casualties among foreign dignitaries would be a PR disaster for Ukraine. Take Xi Jinping, for example—arguably a powerful figure to keep onside. Then again, China has been quietly supporting Russia throughout the war, so it’s a complicated calculus.

Now, question two: Should Ukraine strike?

Yes, they should. A successful strike on the Victory Day parade would be a devastating blow to Putin’s image—especially on such a symbolic day. The irony? Putin won’t even be there in person, reportedly due to security concerns. A coward that is too afraid to show up to Russia’s most important patriotic event of the year. It sends a clear message: this is not a strong leader. This is someone who can’t protect his own people, let alone lead them. Maybe, just maybe, it’s the kind of humiliation that could shake public confidence and spark real unrest inside Russia.

MY THOUGHTS

In my view, this year’s Victory Day parade will be a farce. Much of the showcased military hardware is reportedly borrowed from neighboring countries like Kazakhstan—hardly the image of a mighty superpower. And with Putin himself skipping the event, the whole thing feels even more hollow. What kind of leader doesn't show up to his own military parade? What message does that send to the Russian people?

Under normal circumstances, your average Russian might not care. But we’re not living in normal times—close to a million Russian soldiers are dead. That’s an enormous toll, and it means countless families across Russia have been directly impacted, often with more than one loss. The absence of Putin at such a symbolic event won’t go unnoticed.

Ukraine should seize this moment and strike Moscow with everything it has. If Ukraine can hit the capital and make ordinary Russians feel genuine danger, it could be the shock that finally cracks the illusion of security and invincibility. That, more than any peace talks between Russia, the U.S., and Ukraine, might be what finally sparks a rebellion against the regime. An uprising in Moscow could achieve what diplomacy hasn’t.

CONCLUSION

Russia’s 80th Victory Day parade is shaping up to be an empty display—borrowed equipment, a missing president, and a war that’s drained the nation of nearly a million lives. What should be a moment of pride now highlights the Kremlin’s growing isolation and fear.

For Ukraine, this could be a rare strategic opportunity. A well-timed strike might shatter Russia’s illusion of control and stir unrest at home. It’s risky—but with diplomacy going nowhere, bold action may be the only path to real change.