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Several Telegram channels have recently promoted the idea of a “Narva People’s Republic". This campaign closely resembles the messaging used during the occupation of Crimea and Donbas in 2014. While small channels alone may have limited influence, the broader context is concerning. Russian television hosts are also openly discussing the possibility of invading Narva to disrupt NATO, and several high-level European leaders have warned that Russia could test Europe in the near future. Taken together, these signals raise serious concerns about regional security in Europe.  This week’s blog post explores these questions: How capable is Russia of striking Europe, and are the Baltic states at risk of an attack in the near term?   WHAT IS THE NARVA PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC? Over the past few weeks, a number of pro-Russian Telegram channels and social media accounts have been circulating claims about a so-called “ Narva People’s Republic ” in north-eastern Estonia, near the Russian border. T...

Three weeks in, and the war in Iran is only growing more complicated. As noted last week, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, oil prices are still elevated, and questions about America’s intentions in Iran persist—still unresolved after all this time. One notable development in the conversation surrounding this conflict is the comparison being drawn between Iran and Ukraine: which war matters more, and which is more likely to reshape the balance of power on the global stage? That’s the question I want to explore in this post. In the shadow of a new and escalating crisis, are we beginning to forget Ukraine? WHAT IS GOING ON IN IRAN? At this stage, the situation in Iran remains tense but largely unchanged in its broader trajectory. Reports continue to suggest ongoing exchanges between Iran and opposing forces in the region, with military activity contributing to instability across neighboring countries. States such as Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are feeling the spillover effects o...

The conflict in Iran has now stretched nearly two weeks, with casualties mounting among both civilians and regime forces. America’s objectives remain unclear, though former President Trump has suggested goals ranging from regime change to dismantling Iran’s nuclear program—and even targeting its ballistic missile capabilities. The war has already triggered a well-known but deeply concerning consequence: the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow yet strategically critical waterway, controlled by Iran, is a vital artery for global oil shipments. Fears of missile strikes and drone attacks have made navigating it extremely hazardous, halting maritime traffic indefinitely. In this post, I want to focus on the Strait of Hormuz. Let's look at why it matters, how its closure reverberates across the global oil market, and what it could mean for the future trajectory of the conflict. WHAT AND WHERE IS THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ? The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but critical waterway in the ...

We were struck by another shocking development over the weekend when the United States launched a major military operation against Iran early Saturday morning. The strikes included extensive air and missile attacks across multiple targets in the country. In the initial assaults, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reportedly killed along with a number of senior Iranian officials, including top military leaders such as the defense minister and commanders of the Revolutionary Guard. In this blog post, I want to briefly explore what this attack on Iran means, how it might escalate, and the legal questions surrounding it. This is not without precedent — even in Venezuela, there have been U.S.-led strikes against the Maduro regime that were carried out without consultation. Former President Trump did not seek approval from Congress, the United Nations, or allied nations in those actions. WHAT HAPPENED IN IRAN? First, let's discuss what happened in Iran over the weekend. T...