EDITOR'S CORNER: Trump's Gaffe in Iran

Trump's special military operation in Iran has now been going on for almost two months. In this time, not much has been achieved. So what is America's plan with this war?

In this week's blog post, I want to explore what is going on in Iran: what America's goals are, and how this conflict might end.

THE WAR SO FAR

Iran has been going through a very turbulent time over the past year. There were widespread protests, during which many people died. These protests were largely related to the economic situation in Iran. Many people felt that the regime did not support them. Young people in particular felt that they had no opportunities.

Trump appears to have seen an opportunity to encourage these protests to grow. Alongside the unrest, he took the chance to launch attacks. Two months on, however, we still do not know exactly why.

During the time the war has been going on, Ali Khamenei has been killed and replaced by his son. We have not seen the son publicly since the start of the war, and even before that his presence was limited. The new regime, which has replaced much of the old leadership, appears to be more radical and strongly anti-American. Trump celebrates the death of the old regime as a win, however this fuels Iran to fight even more. 

The United States has bombed targets in Iran. Iran, in turn, has responded across the region. Attacks have occurred in places such as Dubai, Qatar, and Bahrain, as well as elsewhere that supports the US. Even Cyprus has been hit! On top of this, the Strait of Hormuz has been shut for many weeks, significantly affecting the global economy.

Several thousand Iranian civilians have died as a result of this war. People in Europe, Asia, and America are all struggling with the inflated prices that this conflict has caused. What's the winning situation here? 

THE PEACE NEGOTIATIONS

Currently, there is a two-week ceasefire while America and Iran negotiate peace. There have been many moments of hope, but they have come and gone, as it seems that little real progress is being made.

The Strait of Hormuz was briefly reopened last week, but it has since been shut again. In addition, America is engaged in an active blockade of ships entering and leaving Iran. This has, of course, enraged the Iranian clerical regime, and it seems that tensions are escalating further.

Peace does not appear to be close, so how will this conflict end?

EUROPEANS TRY TO ORGANIZE A SOLUTION

NATO countries in Europe have refused to directly engage in Trump's war. However, they have allowed the use of their bases. Some countries, such as United Kingdom and France, have also supported defensive actions for allies in the Middle East. Still, they remain extremely cautious about becoming more deeply involved.

Their hesitation and criticism have angered Trump. He has threatened to withdraw America from NATO, and there are concerns that disputes—such as those involving Greenland—could resurface.

At the same time, Europe is struggling with rising oil prices and dwindling supplies. Not only are citizens paying more at the pump, but there is also concern about a potential jet fuel shortage. This is especially worrying as the summer travel season approaches. If flights are cancelled and people begin to cancel holidays, European economies could suffer further, particularly because many countries rely heavily on tourism income.

Major European leaders, including those in France, the United Kingdom, and Germany, are working on plans to keep the Strait of Hormuz open after a permanent ceasefire is achieved. However, any plans Europe is making may not be enough. Trump may not be satisfied, as he appears to feel let down by Europe's refusal to fully support the United States. This is despite the fact that there was no clear basis for NATO involvement. Article 5 is intended for collective defence when a member state is attacked—not for supporting offensive actions without a clear justification.

HOW CAN THE WAR END

Trump is in a unique position compared to most leaders in history: he can declare victory at almost any point. How is this possible?

It is possible because the Trump administration has not been clear about its objectives in Iran. The stated goals have shifted repeatedly, and Trump has declared victory multiple times. There was one declaration when the Supreme Leader was killed, another when new leadership took over, and yet another when a handful of ships managed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Initially, Trump and his administration stated that the goal was regime change and preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Later, they denied that regime change was an objective. Trump has also claimed that gaining control over Iran’s oil is a goal, which is puzzling given that the United States already has a strong domestic oil industry.

To many observers, it seems that Iran is prepared to fight to the limit of its capabilities. For them, this is a fight for survival—at least for the regime. This means the United States would need to offer more than demands for Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions.

Iran is also in a position to hold the global economy hostage, particularly through control of the Strait of Hormuz. Therefore, it may only need to endure long enough for the United States to lose the will to continue. Iran does not necessarily need to win outright; patience could be the deciding factor.

CONCLUSION

After two months, the United States does not appear to have achieved its objectives. In fact, it seems to be getting drawn deeper into the conflict. Missile stockpiles are decreasing, the economy is under strain, and midterm elections are approaching. Do the Republicans not care that they will surely lose? 

For Iran, this war is about survival. They simply need to hold on. Meanwhile, America’s allies must decide at what point they begin to pressure the United States to end the conflict.

Even if a resolution is reached and a permanent ceasefire is established, the economic damage will not disappear immediately. Ordinary people around the world will likely continue to feel the effects of this war for at least another year.